Project Proposals on Sustainable Use of Living Resources
IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON KEY MARINE AND COSTAL ECOSYSTEMS
IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
1. IDENTIFIERS
Project Number: RES-3
Project Title:
Impact of global climate change on key marine and costal ecosystems in sub-
Saharan Africa
Requesting Country (ies): Cote d'Ivoire, Gambia, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, Seychelles,
South Africa
Requesting National
Cote d'Ivoire: Centre for Oceanographic Research, Abidjan (CRO),
Organizations
Ministry of Higher Education and Research
Gambia: National Environment Agency -NEA, Organisation pour la Mise en
Valeur de la Fleuve de la Gambie (OMVG)
Kenya: Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (KMFRI)
Mozambique: Ministry for the Co-ordination of Environmental Affairs
Nigeria: Nigerian Institute of Oceanography and Marine Research (NIOMR)
Senegal: Ministry of Environment
Seychelles: Policy and Planning Division, Ministry of Environment
South Africa: Department of Environmental Affairs & Tourism (DEAT)
Executing Agencies:
Cote d'Ivoire: Centre for Oceanographic Research, Department of Fisheries,
Ministry of Agriculture
Gambia: National Environment Agency -NEA, Organisation pour la Mise en
Valeur de la Fleuve de la Gambie (OMVG), Department of Water
Resources
Kenya: Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (KMFRI)
Mozambique: National Directorate of Environmental Management, National
Directorate of Water, National Institute of Meteorology
Nigeria: Nigerian Institute of Oceanography and Marine Research (NIOMR),
Federal Department of Fisheries
Senegal: Direction of Environment and Classified Establishments
Seychelles: Seychelles Centre for Marine Research and Technology
South Africa: Department of Environmental Affairs & Tourism (DEAT),
Department of Agriculture and Land Affairs, Department of Water
Affairs and Forestry (DWAF), Coastal Provincial Departments
Possible Partners:
Donors, National Government, Local Government, Private Industry, NGOs,
CBOs
Required National
Cote d'Ivoire: DPA-PAA (Port Authority), National Environment Agency
Partners:
Gambia: Department of Agricultural Services, Department of Community
Development
Kenya: National Environment Management Authority; Kenya Wildlife
Services; Meteorological Department; Fisheries Department.
Mozambique: National Directorate of Forestry and Wildlife, Ministry of
Fisheries, Universidade Eduardo Mondlane
Nigeria: Nigerian Institute of Oceanography and Marine Research (NIOMR),
Federal Department of Fisheries
Senegal:
Department
of
Geology,
LPA and Department of Biology, CSE
Seychelles: Seychelles Centre for Marine Research and Technology, Seychelles
Meteorological Office, Seychelles Fishing Authority, Marine Parks
Authority, Seychelles Bureau of Standards, Ministry of Industries
and International Business
South Africa: Academic and Research Institutions
Priority Issue Addressed: GIWA issue(s): Modification / loss of ecosystems, Modification in
streamflow,
Regional Scope:
East Africa (Mozambique, Seychelles), West Africa (Gambia, Nigeria, Cote
d'Ivoire, Senegal), South Africa
Project Location:
Key marine and coastal areas and ecosystems in participating countries (to
be identified in the project)
Project Duration:
3 years
Working Group
Sustainable Use of Living Resources
of the African Process
2. SUMMARY:
The enhanced greenhouse effect brought on as a result of the discharge of large volumes of greenhouse gases
into the earth's atmosphere is raising concern over the current and future effects it may have on world
climates. Certain changes are already evident, but these appear to be relatively minor. Future predicted
changes in world climates and ocean circulation patterns are much more severe, however, and are likely to
have a considerable impact on marine and coastal living resources in the future. These effects and the
implications of this are only poorly understood at this stage, due to little research having been invested in
this area, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Various climate models and scenarios have been developed to
predict future trends in climate change, the most successful and widely favoured of these being the General
Circulation Models. This project proposes to make use of these General Circulation Models to derive
predictions on likely changes in key climate variables (e.g. air temperature, rainfall, wind field patterns) and
to assess the effects of these changes on key habitats and key resources in sub-Saharan Africa (e.g. upwelling
areas, estuaries, coral reefs). Results will be incorporated into existing management plans and will be used
to anticipate future requirements under altered climatic regimes. Results will also contribute to a better
understanding of the trends and future changes that are likely to affect the key priority issues on the marine
and coastal environment including modification/loss of habitats, modification of streamflow, coastal erosion
and overexploitation of living resources. The regional approach proposed for this project offers considerable
added value over and above single country projects as it will allow for sharing of expertise in the region,
regional capacity building and prediction of regional impacts and extrapolation of results to all major
ecosystems on the sub-continent and from one country to another.
3. COSTS AND FINANCING (MILLION US $)1
International & bilateral sources:
Financing by potential source:
USD1.296
Subtotal international financing:
USD1.296
Co-financing:
Governments in cash & kind:
USD1.241
Subtotal
Co-financing:
USD1.241
Total Project Cost:
USD 2.537
4. GOVERNMENT ENDORSEMENT(S)
Cote d'Ivoire: Ministry of Environment
Kenya:
Director, Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (KMFRI)
Mozambique: Ministry for the Co-ordination of Environmental Affairs
Nigeria: Honourable Minister, Ministry of Environment
Senegal: Ministry of Environment
Seychelles: Principal Secretary, Ministry of Environment
South Africa: Honourable Minister, Department of Environmental Affairs & Tourism (DEAT)
5. GOVERNMENT FOCAL POINT(S)
Cote d'Ivoire: Environment Department, Centre of Oceanographic Research
1 This budget is preliminary and has not undergone a full consultation process with the respective countries.
Therefore, it does not indicate the actual financial commitment that would be provided by participating
countries once the project proposal and its components are finalised.
Kenya:
Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute and Meteorological Department
Mozambique: Mrs Telma Manyate, Coastal Zone Mangement Department, DNGA, Ministry for the Co-
ordination of Environmental Affairs
Nigeria:
Dr. A. Solarin, Nigerian Institute for Oceanography and Marine Research (NIOMR)
Director, Federal Department of Fisheries
Senegal:
Fatimato Dia Tousi, Direction of Environment and Classified Establishments
Seychelles:
Mr R. Payet, Chairman National Climate Change Committee, Ministry of Environment
South Africa: Director General, Department of Environmental affairs and Tourism (DEAT)
6. AFRICAN PROCESS WORKING GROUP FOCAL POINT(S)
Country Co-ordinators on the Programme of Interventions of the Partnership Conference of the African
Process:
Cote d'Ivoire: Dr Jaques Abe, Centre de Reserches Oceanologiques
The Gambia: Dr Momodou Cham, National Environment Agency
Kenya:
Ali Mohamed; National Environment Secretariat
Mozambique: Dr Evaristo Baquete, Ministry for Coordination of Environmental Affairs (MICOA)
Nigeria:
Dr Larry Awosika, Nigerian Institute for Oceanography and Marine Research
Senegal:
Mr BA Elimane, Direction de l'Environment et des Etablissements Classés
Seychelles:
Mr Terry Jones, Ministry of Tourism and Transport
South Africa: Mr Andre Share, Marine & Coastal Management, Department of Environmental Affairs &
Tourism
Co-ordinator and experts of the Thematic Working Group on the Programme of Interventions of the
Partnership Conference of the African Process
Co-ordinator: Dr Barry Clark, Zoology Department, University of Cape Town, South Africa
Experts:
Mr Jacob Ochiewo, Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute, Kenya
Dr Kwame Koranteng, Marine Fisheries Research Division, Ministry of Food and
Agriculture, Ghana
PROJECT DESCRIPTION
1.
BACKGROUND & JUSTIFICATION
The greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon that makes life on earth possible. Incoming solar radiation is
trapped by certain gases in the atmosphere and acts to warm the earth's surface. The concentrations of these
greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere have fluctuated in the geological past due to natural causes. However,
since pre-industrial times (about 1750), greenhouse gases are thought to have increased dramatically due to
human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels, intensive agriculture and industrial processes. It is
estimated that Global CO2 concentrations have been increasing at a rate of ~1.3 parts per million per year for
the last 35 years, with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 over the last 100 years. The result is the `Enhanced
Greenhouse Effect', which appears to be causing global atmospheric and sea temperatures to rise. Recent
estimates suggest that annual global air surface temperatures have already warmed by 0.6°C over the period
1861-1997, and are likely to continue doing so (Jones et al. 19992). The International Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) predict that air temperatures will have risen by 1.2°C by 2020, 2.1°C by 2050 and 3.2°C by
2080. It is predicted that sea surface temperatures will increase along with air temperature, although not as
rapidly or to the same extent, owing to the greater thermal inertia of the ocean compared with the
atmosphere.
Various climate models and scenarios have been developed to simulate past climate and predict future
trends. The most successful and widely favoured of the methods use results from large-scale atmospheric
models, known as General Circulation Models (GCMs). Preliminary work that has been undertaken in South
Africa with General Circulation Models indicates that considerable changes in weather and circulation
patterns can be expected, but it is not clear what the effects this may have on marine and coastal ecosystems.
It is likely, for example, that changes in atmospheric circulation patterns will affect the upwelling regimes
off the west coast of Africa. High primary productivity in upwelling areas around the world support large
commercial fisheries, providing up to 20% of the worlds marine fish catch. Upwelling relies on longshore
winds and the effects of the earth's rotation to drive surface water offshore allowing nutrient rich subsurface
waters to move up to the surface. There is a possibility that under the influence of global climate change
these wind regimes may change, leading to the collapse of the upwelling systems and their associated high
productivity. Another potentially important affect of global climate change are the effects on rainfall
patterns. Rainfall patterns over southern Africa are expected to change by as much as 20% (mostly
decreases) under a double CO2 scenario (predicted to occur in about 2020). Reductions and modifications in
streamflow are inevitable, and severe impacts to estuaries (among other things) are expected as a result.
Estuaries are dependent on freshwater runoff, which ensures that their mouths remain open or at least open
periodically to allow the ingress and egress of marine species. From an ecological point of view, estuaries
are extremely important habitats, used by many commercially important fish and invertebrate species (such
as prawns) as feeding and nursery grounds. Loss of estuarine habitats or reduction in estuarine functioning is
likely to have a severely detrimental impact on estuarine associated fish and invertebrate species and on the
associated commercial, artisanal and subsistence fisheries.
High populations densities exist in coastal areas in sub-Saharan African, with a correspondingly high
proportion of people reliant on harvesting of marine living resources for their livelihoods. It is vitally
important therefore for these countries to obtain some sort of advance warning regarding the likely effects of
climate change and the implications these may have on marine living resources and peoples' livelihoods.
Most climate change studies in Africa have dealt exclusively with impacts of sea level rise, and there has
been little research into impacts of other aspects of climate change. As a result, few of the existing ICZM
and/or development plans integrate likely future changes into their designs. Policy makers from government
and industry are now demanding this kind of information in order to make more informed decisions and
plans.
2 Jones, P.D., M. New, D.E. Parker, S. Martin & I.G. Rigor. 1999. Surface air temperature and its changes over the past
150 years. Reviews of Geophysics 37: 173-199.
2.
OBJECTIVE & EXPECTED RESULTS
The overall objective of this project is to try and assess the likely impacts of climate change on key marine
and coastal ecosystems in sub-Saharan Africa, using General Circulation Model (GCM) data. This project
will build on the work that has been done to date, and will attempt to refine any existing prediction regarding
the effect of climate change on living marine resources in sub-Saharan Africa. Information yielded by this
project will be invaluable for future planning with regards to management of living marine resources.
The immediate objectives and expected results (outputs) are to:
1.
Develop predictions regarding likely changes in key climate variables (e.g. air temperature, rainfall,
wind fields) and their effects on key oceanographic and coastal variables and processes (e.g. SST, ocean
currents, upwelling, stream flow)Expected output(s):
Predictions regarding likely changes in key climate variable over southern Africa including air
temperature, rainfall, wind fieldsPredictions regarding likely changes in key oceanographic and
coastal variable and processes including sea surface temperature, ocean currents, upwelling and
stream flow, affecting marine and coastal environments off participating countriesIdentify areas and
regions along the coast that are likely to suffer the greatest impact as a result of changing climatic
conditions and undertake detailed case studies in these areas
Expected output(s):Areas and regions of greatest biophysical change/impact identifiedDetailed case
study assessments in identified key areas of potential changes to physical coastal and oceanographic
processes and their effects on living resources and biodiversity Assess likely socio-economic
impacts on human populations in the coastal zones of participating countries
Expected output(s):Predictions regarding socio-economic impacts of climate induced changes in marine
resources and their availability in participating countries
4.
Build capacity within relevant government departments and research organisations to monitor
changes and address the implications thereof (i.e. planning)
Expected output(s):Enhanced capacity within government departments and research organisation in the
region to monitor, predict and address long-term changes in biophysical and ecological
oceanographic and coastal processes
Likely climate induced changes accounted for in long-range management plans
5.
To disseminate result of assessments as widely as possible, particularly to decision makers in sub-
Saharan Africa, to raise awareness of potential implications of global climate change in the region
Expected output(s):Research reports, publications, presentations, web sites
3.
PROJECT COMPONENTS/ACTIVITIES
To achieve the above objectives, the project will be carried out in the form of major components with
corresponding activities:
1. Use global climate models to generate predictions on future changes in important climatic variables over
sub-Saharan Africa including air temperature, wind fields and rainfall patterns
Researchers experienced in working with General Circulation Models to generate outputs on current
and future predicted climate scenarios for participating countries from a variety of GCM models
(e.g. Hadley Genesis, CSM Models)
Convene workshops to discuss and compare results obtained
2. Develop and/or adapt existing conceptual models to predicted effects of altered weather patterns on sea
surface temperature, ocean currents, upwelling patterns and stream flow
Assess suitability of existing conceptual models to predict effects of altered weather patterns on key
biophysical processes; identify, adapt and/or develop models suitable for the purpose
Develop predictions regarding likely effects of climate change on key coastal and oceanographic
processes and variables
Convene workshops to compare and discuss results for different countries
3. Develop predictions as to the likely effects of changes in key coastal and oceanic processes on marine
living resources and biodiversity
Assess suitability of existing conceptual models to predict effects of changes in key biophysical
processes; identify, adapt and/or develop models suitable for the purpose
Develop predictions regarding likely effects of climate change on marine living resources and
biodiversity
Convene workshops to compare and discuss results for different countries
4. Assess socio-economic implications of climate induced changes to marine living resources and
biodiversity
Researchers to assess likely impacts of climate induced changes to marine living resources and
biodiversity on fishers, fisheries, coastal communities and national economies
5. Develop management recommendation to address resulting effects of climate change on ecosystem
processes and resources
Develop management recommendations and assist national governments and regional agencies to
develop policies and plans to cope with anticipated changesDisseminate results of the study as
widely as possible within the region
Distribute research reports and publish research results, deliver presentations to key government
departments, develop web site for reporting and communicating of research results
Run capacity building and training workshops as required to ensure adequate capacity in all
countries and continued research activity in all countries
4.
LINKAGES TO OTHER NATIONAL OR REGIONAL ACTIVITIES / TRANSBOUNDARY
ASPECTS
A large amount of time and energy has been invested in researching likely impacts of climate change and in
long-term monitoring of key environmental variables. Establishing links with as many of these programmes
and projects as possible will reduce overlap and duplication of effort. As a minimum links will be
established with the following existing programmes:
· Kenya `Réhabilitation d'urgence d'infrastructures endommagées par les inondations de 1997 (El Nino)
(AFD)
· Observation system for hydrological cycles in West Africa (FFEM)
· Regional pilot Project for the acquisition and dissemination of hydrological data (FFEM)
· Institutional co-operation in the field of Environmental Impact Assessment in Mozambique (NORAD)
· Reversing Land and Water Degradation Trends in the Niger River Basin (GEF)
· Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ) Project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere
Programme: A study of Global Change of the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU)
· Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem (BCLME) project (GEF)
· Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME) project (GEF)
· Guinea Current Large Marine Ecosystem (GCLME) project (GEF)
· Protection of the Marine and Coastal Environment of the Western Indian Ocean (GEF)
· Management of the Senegal River project (FFEM)
· Global Ocean Observing System for Sustainable Integrated Management of the Marine and Coastal
Environment and Resources in Africa (GOOS Africa) (IOC-UNESCO)
· Reversing Land and Water Degradation Trends in the Niger River Basin (GEF)
· Global Water Partnership
· Ocean Data and Information Network for Africa (ODINAFRICA) (IOC-UNESCO)
Links with these programmes will be established and maintained through activities such as: studying and
reviewing the research of results from other projects and programmes (at the start of the project), regional SS
Africa workshop to which leaders/specialists of all programmes will be invited to discuss their results and
work.
5.
DEMONSTRATIVE VALUE & REPLICABILITY
Assessments of the impacts of global climate change on coastal and oceanographic processes and variables,
marine living resources, biodiversity, fisheries and coastal communities will be undertaken in 7 countries
from east, west and southern Africa. This regional approach will allow for extrapolation of research results
to all coastal countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Capacity and expertise developed in this project can be
transferred to other countries in the region where similar assessments can be completed in the future.
6.
RISKS AND SUSTAINABILITY
A number of risks have been identified that could threaten the sustainability of this project. These include:
Project executants unable to secure data from General Circulation Models
Insufficient expertise available within participating countries to undertake necessary assessments
National governments afford assessment of climate change impacts too low a priority
National governments being unable to afford in-country contributions required to fund/sustain the
project
National governments unwilling/unable to adopt recommendations developed by the project
Political instability
It is clear that implementation of this projects is not without risk. However, the level of risk associated with
the proposed project is considered "acceptable" in the context of the clear need to identify and assess likely
impacts of global climate change on marine and coastal resources and biodiversity. A number of measures
have nevertheless been incorporated into project design to mitigate this risk where possible:
Building capacity within national governments and other research institutions involved in climate
and fisheries related research is considered an important component of this project. Exchange of
information and expertise between countries within the region, as well as south-south collaboration
between African and Southeast Asian and north-south collaboration between European and African
countries will be given a high priority on this project.
Links will have to be established with appropriate institutions in the USA and Europe to affect the
necessary transfer of data, skills and expertise
Significant cost saving will be incurred through simultaneous implementation of the project in
several countries within the sub-Saharan African
To further assist in the assessment of risk for this project, potential risks are identified in the logical
framework (see Annex 1).
7.
STAKEHOLDER PARTICIPATION
Many stakeholders stand to benefit from the information generated by this project, including governments,
government departments, other decisions making agencies, fisheries management institutions, research
institutes, private industry, coastal users, coastal communities, etc. Opportunities will be created to involve
all of these stakeholders in the project whilst it is underway and to make it easy for them to gain access to the
data and information generated by the programme. All reports, data and assessments generated by the
programme will be available on the internet and the project itself will be given the widest exposure possible.
8.
PROJECT MANAGEMENT & IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS
It is envisioned that this project will be implemented as a set of coordinated activities in each of the
participating countries. Data and information requirements for each country are likely to be similar, as will
requirements for capacity building and skills transfer. It makes sense therefore to have a regional
coordinating committee that can oversee and direct activities within all countries. The committee will
comprise experts from each of the participating countries that will be required to ensure that each of the
participating countries have access to the necessary expertise, data and training at required intervals.
National coordinators will ensure that activities proceed smoothly in each country and will also be required
to report regularly to the regional coordinating body and funding organisations on progress within their
countries. Institutions and individuals within each participating countries with the appropriate skills and
expertise will be identified to undertake tasks necessary to complete the project.
9.
PROJECT FINANCING & DURATION
The project is expected to last for a total of four years and is expected to cost $1,333,000. A detailed
breakdown of costs for all phases and activities is shown below. Costs to National governments will be in
the form on in-kind contributions only.
Table 1.
Component & Activity Financing
External
National Government
Total
Source of
Funds
Source 1
Cash
In-kind
1. Generate predictions on future climate scenarios
1.1 Capacity building and training workshops
180,000.00
$180,000.00
$360,000.00
1.2 Use GCMs to generate outputs on current and
$120,000.00
$120,000.00
$240,000.00
future predicted climate scenarios
1.3 Workshops to discuss and compare results
$48,000.00
$48,000.00
$96,000.00
2. Model changes in climate variables on ocean and
coastal processes
2.1 Develop models to predict effects of altered
weather patterns on key ocean and coastal
$250,000.00
$250,000.00
$500,000.00
processes, generate outputs
2.2 Convene workshops to compare and discuss
$48,000.00
$48,000.00
$96,000.00
results
3. Model effects of climate change on marine
resources and biodiversity
3.1 Develop models to predict effects of changes in
key biophysical processes on resources,
$350,000.00
$350,000.00
$700,000.00
biodiversity, and socio-economic indicators,
generate outputs
3.2 Convene workshops to compare and discuss
$40,000.00
$40,000.00
$80,000.00
results
4. Develop management recommendation
4.1 Develop management recommendations, assist
national governments to develop policies and
$100,000.00
$80,000.00
$180,000.00
plans to cope with anticipated changes
5. Disseminate results of the study
5.1 Distribute research reports and publish research
$40,000.00
$5,000.00
$45,000.00
results
5.2 Capacity building and training workshops
$120,000.00
$120,000.00
$240,000.00
TOTAL
$1,296,000.00
$1,241,000.00
$2,537,000.00
Note: This budget is preliminary and has not undergone a full consultation process with the respective
countries. Therefore, it does not indicate the actual financial commitment that would be provided by
participating countries once the project proposal and its components are finalised.
10. MONITORING,
EVALUATION
&DISSEMINATION
Monitoring and evaluation will be coordinated through the regional coordinating team. This team will
comprise the national coordinators from each of the participating countries as well as international experts on
climate change and representative from the international partnering institutions and contributing donors. A
detailed plan of for the entire project and all national activities will be drawn up as part of a more detailed
project proposal. It will be the responsibility of the national coordinators to ensure that in-country activities
proceed according to the proposed schedule. Regular in-country and regional reporting sessions will be held
for the purpose of monitoring progress, identifying areas in which additional assistance or input is required,
for sharing information and exchanging ideas. Technical experts from the different countries will be
required to work particularly closely together in accessing and processing data from the General Circulation
Models. Training programmes will be run at the start of the programme to ensure that all participating
experts are familiar with the techniques and software required for accessing and analysing data for the
project.
11. WORK PLAN AND TIMETABLE
Table 2 :
Outline Work Plan and Timetable
1.1
Year
1 2 3
1.2
Quarter
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
Establish regional coordinating committee, appoint
national coordinators, identify national and
international participating institutions, identify national
and international team members
Use Global Climate Models to generate predicted changes
in key clime variable
Develop and/or adapt conceptual models to predicted
effects of altered weather patterns on wind fields,
upwelling, SST, and stream flow
Develop predictions on the likely effects of changes in key
physical variable on marine, estuarine and coastal
processes
Develop management recommendation to mitigate
resulting effects on ecosystem processes
Publicise results of the study
ANNEX 1:
LOGFRAME MATRIX
OBJECTIVELY
MEANS OF
CRITICAL
VERIFIABLE
VERIFICATION
ASSUMPTIONS AND
INDICATORS
(MONITORING
RISKS
FOCUS)
OVERALL GOAL
To assess the likely
·
Completed
·
Peer review of
·
Project is funded
impacts of climate change
assessments for all
assessment reports
·
Continued
on key marine and coastal
participating countries
·
Public interviews
political and financial
ecosystems in sub-Saharan
·
Increased
and surveys
support for sub-
Africa
awareness of likely
·
Surveys of
Saharan Africa
impacts and
popular literature,
·
National
implications of climate
newspapers, magazines
governments recognise
change
etc.
importance of potential
·
Inclusion of
climate change impacts
climate change in key
·
Sufficient
policy documents
capacity and expertise
available within the
region to undertake
required assessments
·
No major adverse
changes in
environmental, and
economic conditions in
the Region
PROJECT OBJECTIVES
1. To develop predictions
·
Data outputs from
·
Peer review of
·
Sufficient
regarding likely changes
GCMs for sub-Saharan
data reports,
capacity and expertise
in key climate variables
Africa
predictions and models
available within the
and their effects on key
·
Conceptual
·
Workshop reports
region to generate
oceanographic and
models developed to
GCM data
coastal variables and
simulate effects of
·
National
processes
climate change on
governments commit
marine and coastal
required personnel and
ecosystems
resources to project
2. Identify areas and
·
Completed
·
Peer review of
·
Sufficient funding
regions along the coast
assessments for all
assessments and case
available to complete
that are likely to suffer
participating countries
study reports
case study assessments
the greatest impact as a
·
Case study
result of changing
reports
climatic conditions and
undertake detailed case
studies in these areas
3. Assess likely socio-
·
Socio-economic
·
Peer review of
·
Sufficient funding
economic impacts on
assessment reports
socio-economic impact
and expertise available
human populations
produced on schedule
assessment reports
to complete socio-
economic assessments
4. Build capacity within
·
Increase in
·
Publications
·
National
relevant government
research output
produced by academics
governments recognise
departments and
·
Improved
and researchers in the
importance of potential
research organisations
capacity to manage and
region
climate change impacts
monitor climate change
·
Interviews with
·
Continued
and impacts thereof
private sector
financial support for
the project
OUTPUTS
Predictions regarding
·
Reports produced
·
Peer review of
·
Sufficient
likely changes in key
by each country
status reports
expertise available
climate variable over
within each country
southern Africa
OBJECTIVELY
MEANS OF
CRITICAL
VERIFIABLE
VERIFICATION
ASSUMPTIONS AND
INDICATORS
(MONITORING
RISKS
FOCUS)
Predictions regarding
·
Assessment
·
Peer review of
·
National
likely effects of climate
reports, workshop
assessment and
governments recognise
change on key coastal and
reports, climate change
workshop reports
importance of potential
oceanographic processes
predictions
climate change impacts
and variables
·
Sufficient
expertise available
within each country
·
Continued
support for the project
Predictions regarding
·
Assessment
·
Peer review of
·
National
likely effects of climate
reports, workshop
assessment and
governments recognise
change on marine and
reports, climate change
workshop reports
importance of potential
coastal resources and
predictions
climate change impacts
biodiversity
·
Sufficient
expertise available
within each country
·
Continued
support for the project
Predictions regarding
·
Assessment
·
Peer review of
·
National
likely socio-economic
reports, workshop
assessment and
governments recognise
impacts of climate change
reports, climate change
workshop reports
importance of potential
predictions
climate change impacts
·
Sufficient
expertise available
within each country
·
Continued
support for the project
Enhanced capacity within
·
Training
·
Interviews with
·
Government
government departments,
workshop reports
government and
commitment to
research organisations,
·
Record of
industry personnel
investigating and
Enhanced capacity within
attendance at training
dealing with likely
relevant government
workshops
impacts of global
departments, research
·
Increased
climate change
organisations, & industry
capacity within
·
Continued
government and
support for the project
industry to manage and
study climate change
PROJECT ACTIVITIES
Project initiation (Identify
·
Reports from
·
Peer review of
·
Government
key roles player in each
regional and national
meeting reports
commitment to
country, eestablish
meetings
·
Interviews with
investigating and
regional and national
·
Training
participants at training
dealing with likely
coordinating bodies,
workshop reports
workshops
impacts of global
establish contact with key
·
Record of
climate change
institutes, research centers
attendance at training
·
Continued
and organizations, Run
workshops
support for the project
capacity building and
training workshops)
Use GCMs to develop
·
Assessment
·
Peer review of
·
Sufficient
predictions of likely
reports, workshop
assessment and
expertise available
changes in key climate
reports, climate change
workshop reports,
within each country
variable over southern
predictions
climate change impact
·
Continued
Africa
reports
support for the project
OBJECTIVELY
MEANS OF
CRITICAL
VERIFIABLE
VERIFICATION
ASSUMPTIONS AND
INDICATORS
(MONITORING
RISKS
FOCUS)
Develop predictions
·
Assessment
·
Peer review of
·
Sufficient
regarding likely effects of
reports, workshop
assessment and
expertise available
climate change on marine
reports, climate change
workshop reports,
within each country
and coastal resources and
predictions
climate change imp[act
·
Continued
biodiversity
reports
support for the project
Develop predictions
·
Assessment
·
Peer review of
·
Sufficient
regarding likely socio-
reports, workshop
assessment and
expertise available
economics impacts of
reports, climate change
workshop reports,
within each country
climate change
predictions
climate change impact
·
Continued
reports
support for project
Develop management
·
Management
·
Peer review of
·
Government
recommendations and
recommendation
recommendations
willingness to modify
present to national
reports
·
Review of
existing policies and/or
government authorities for
·
National policy
national policy
adopt new policies
endorsement
documents published
documents and
·
Continued
by relevant government
legislation frameworks
support for project
agencies
Publish and disseminate
·
Presentations,
·
Enumeration of
·
Government
results of the project
research reports and
research reports and
commitment to project
publications
publications
·
Continued
·
Interviews with
support for project
researchers in
government